Tyler Cowen read Dean Baker's take on state pensions and says he prefers Josh Barro's more alarmed assessment. I read Barro's piece and was surprised to find that it agreed, in many respects, with Baker's piece, though the two articles had different emphases and different prescriptions.
In particular, they agree that the central question afflicting pension plans is the returns they'll see in coming years. Barro argues that the commonly quoted figures "understate the cost of benefits to be paid in the future by counting on high investment returns that may not materialize," while Baker argues that the gigantic shortfalls that some observers are now estimating are overstated and that pension funds can "reasonably assume" returns in the 7 percent range. It's worth noting that before the financial crisis, Baker was trying to sound the alarm about pension funds using overly rosy estimations of future returns, so it's difficult to accuse him of being overly bullish. That said, read David Leonhardt making the case for more pessimism on future returns.
The major disagreement comes over the question of what to do next. Barro argues that existing pension promises should be honored. "Short of defaulting on these debts," he writes, "the only way states can eliminate unfunded pension liabilities is to fund them." But going forward, he'd like to see states move to 401(k)-style programs, as that protects taxpayers from having to shell out more cash during economic downturns. Under the current system, he says, "state governments are long in the stock market on taxpayers’ behalf."
Baker strongly disagrees. He argues that the point of an actor such as the state, at least when it comes to pension policy, is that it has a long time horizon and so can ignore cyclical ups and downs in the stock market. "In principle," he writes, "state and local governments will exist into perpetuity, so a period in which the market is depressed need not be of great consequence." Add in, as Teresa Ghilarducci does, that "401(k) management and investment fees are three times higher" than traditional pension plans and "professionals who manage money in pooled pension funds usually get higher returns than workers who manage their own 401(k) accounts," and it's hard to argue that defined benefit plans should be done away with for states, though it's not hard to argue that they should be funded honestly and based on realistic projections for eventual returns. Felix Salmon agrees.
But the bottom line is that the correct questions to ask about pension plans are: 1) Are they estimating a realistic rate of return going forward? 2) If so, are they sufficiently funded? And 3) If not, what should be done? I think there's less disagreement about the underlying nature of the problem here than some people might think. The disagreements, rather, are about the country's likely economic performance going forward (as that will ultimately decide returns) and what our state pension system should look like in general.
“With just one impressive speech, Chris Christie put three full days of CPAC speakers to shame.
“That’s the bottom line from a bipartisan panel of experts, who watched the New Jersey governor’s address on Wednesday at the American Enterprise Institute for POLITICO – and drew a sharp contrast between Christie and the cattle call of potential GOP hopefuls at the just-concluded conservative gathering…
“‘He hit precisely the right notes people are looking for,’ Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said of the Republican, citing the governor’s focus on getting the states and nation’s fiscal house in order…
“‘He looked presidential in the kind of Hollywood sense,’ Simmons said. ‘The Bulworth, straight-talking politician. John Goodman on The West Wing. Republican guy from the heartland. He looked that part but it’s a long way to go from there to the White House.’”
***
“The way to understand Christie, says Ben Dworkin, director of the Institute for New Jersey politics at Rider University, ‘is he has the leadership skills of a powerful prosecutor who happens to be governor. He argues his case in the press, and he stays on the attack constantly.’ As a federal prosecutor in New Jersey, Christie never lost a corruption case, and there were plenty in a state best known for The Sopranos. His favorite phrase: ‘Heads I win, tails you lose.’ Yet he’s declined to join other Republican governors and attorneys general in challenging Obama’s health care reform. He says he doesn’t have the money to fool around with that stuff right now, and if the law is found unconstitutional, New Jersey will benefit without having to kick in legal fees.
“His refusal to join in suggests a degree of pragmatism that is attractive to non-true believers. This is a guy who has focused his message of change, and is clear about what he stands for. This is distinct from Obama’s message of change, which meant different things to different people in 2008 and left almost everybody disappointed…
“Christie’s tough-guy approach is working, making him a national figure after just 13 months in office. ‘He commands the bully pulpit more effectively than any other governor we have seen in modern history,’ says Dworkin, who predicts Christie will deliver the keynote address at the GOP convention in 2012.”
***
DYLAN RATIGAN, HOST: Go ahead, Jonathan. Set all of that aside, just your evaluation of [New Jersey Governor Chris] Christie, period, as a politician and his rhetoric.
JONATHAN CAPEHART, WASHINGTON POST: I think Chris Christie is terrific. Here’s a guy whose tough talk is matched up by tough action. All those things he’s talking about, he talked about at AEI today, those are all things he’s done with the exception of dealing with entitlements and things like that which he doesn’t really have to deal with because he’s a governor. But because he’s a governor in a state with deep financial problems and is forced every day, day in and day out, to make decisions, you know, he’s, he’s making them and he’s not sugar-coating them. He’s not trying to be anybody’s friend. He, you know, President Obama talks about adult conversations. Speaker Boehner talks about adult conversations surrounding the big, tough issues that face the country. Chris Christie is the one who’s actually having the adult conversation and making the tough decisions. And when people get in his face and try to yell back at him, he yells back. He actually yells back, which is why I think is driving his popularity.
***
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
***
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
bench craft company
Hyperlocal Heartbreak: Why Haven't Neighborhood <b>News</b> Technologies <b>...</b>
Neighborhood news aggregator Outside.in has been acquired by AOL, according to multiple reports this morning. Apparently it's being bought for less than the big pile of money that high-profile investors put into it, back when hopes were ...
Confirmed: AOL's Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In
AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...
» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>
If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...
No comments:
Post a Comment